"Some medical experts privately agreed with my prediction that there may be very little Covid-19 by April but suggested that I not to talk publicly about herd immunity because people might become complacent and fail to take precautions or might decline the vaccine. But scientists shouldn’t try to manipulate the public by hiding the truth. As we encourage everyone to get a vaccine, we also need to reopen schools and society to limit the damage of closures and prolonged isolation. Contingency planning for an open economy by April can deliver hope to those in despair and to those who have made large personal sacrifices."
Dr. Makary is a professor at the Johns Hopkins School of Medicine and Bloomberg School of Public Health, chief medical adviser to Sesame Care, and author of “The Price We Pay.”
The Wall Street Journal carries a piece today that explains how we will have herd immunity from Covid by April. I hope you can access it.
Here are some excerpts:
Amid the dire Covid warnings, one crucial fact has been largely ignored: Cases are down 77% over the past six weeks. If a medication slashed cases by 77%, we’d call it a miracle pill. Why is the number of cases plummeting much faster than experts predicted?
In large part because natural immunity from prior infection is far more common than can be measured by testing. Testing has been capturing only from 10% to 25% of infections, depending on when during the pandemic someone got the virus. Applying a time-weighted case capture average of 1 in 6.5 to the cumulative 28 million confirmed cases would mean about 55% of Americans have natural immunity.
Antibody studies almost certainly underestimate natural immunity. Antibody testing doesn’t capture antigen-specific T-cells, which develop “memory” once they are activated by the virus. Survivors of the 1918 Spanish flu were found in 2008—90 years later—to have memory cells still able to produce neutralizing antibodies.
When people talk about herd immunity it makes me feel like a cow!
ReplyDeleteBetter a cow than a stuck pig!!
DeleteLeila wins the pun trophy for the day.
DeleteHa! I beat you, Ted "punster" Turner!
DeleteIf this is “science” (and it seems like it is) will it be “followed”?
ReplyDeleteI fervently hope so! I don't even know if I can make it to April.
DeleteThis makes sense and I hope it is true. But more importantly it needs to be acknowledged by local governments. We need relief from mask mandates. The mask spreads fear and drives a wedge between neighbors making us more dependent on our "overlords". We will be fighting a losing battle in saving society until that trend is turned and most people are out without masks...especially children!
ReplyDeleteYes, well, being acknowledged is the whole problem! Many experts are also dismissing the idea of "pre- or a-symptomatic transmission" but that too is ignored, and it's what all the restrictions are based on!
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